BULLIONS, BASE METALS & ENERGY LEVELS FOR 4 MAY 2016

Bullions:  Gold hovers below 15-month peak on Wednesday as dollar firms. Two Federal Reserve officials talked up US interest rate hikes this year. The dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against six major currencies, finished Tuesday's session up 0.3 percent after hitting a 15-month low earlier in the session, recording its first increase in seven days. The recent rally in prices has prompted investors to pour money into gold funds.

COMMODITY	S2	S1	R1	R2	TREND	RANGE
Gold	29900	30080	30380	30500	BULLISH	30000 - 30480
Silver	40700	41200	41900	42300	BULLISH	40800 -41600

Base Metals: Base metals are mixed in yesterday’s trade as the decline in the dollar is supporting prices but weaker manufacturing data from China, U.S as well as Japan is weighing on sentiment. In China, the Caixin/Markit Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.4 last month, a 14th straight month of contraction. In U.S., the ISM PMI slipped to 50.8 percent in April from 51.5 percent in March. Aluminum may face resistance as Russia’s Rusal increased its Q1 production by 1.7% to 916,000 tonnes and Alcoa agreed a new power deal in Washington State to prevent the closure of its 279,000 tonne-per-year aluminum smelter. The short term bias for metals looks mixed as a weaker dollar will support prices but global growth concerns will cap the rallies.

COMMODITY	S2	S1	R1	R2	TREND	RANGE
Aluminum	106.5	107.8	108.75	110	BEARISH	107-110
Copper	323	327	332	335	BEARISH	330 - 340
Lead	115	116	118	119	BEARISH	116-119
Nickel	617	625	640	649	SIDEWAYS	618-640
Zinc	124	125	127	128	BEARISH	125-128

Energy: Oil prices may open flattish. The OPEC boosted output in April by 484,000 barrels to 33.21 million a day driven by increased production in Iraq. Iraqi exports approached a record high in April, climbing by 3.36 million barrels a day. Russian oil output fell slightly from a record high but exports increased m/m to 3.11 million bpd in April from 2.90mbpd in March. On the downside, a weaker dollar and the fall in U.S. rig count is supporting prices. The oil rig count also fell by 11 last week to 332 as per Baker Hughes data. The short term bias is likely to be choppy but a global risk off environment could act as a headwind to prices. On an intraday basis, we expect oil prices to trade lower as Iraq was the latest OPEC-member to announce its exports were rising after Saudi Arabia. Also, weak Chinese and U.S manufacturing data will exert further pressure.

COMMODITY	S2	S1	R1	R2	TREND	RANGE
Crude oil	2820	2870	2970	3040	SIDEWAYS	2870-2970