29 February 2016


GOLD: Gold fell more than 1 percent on Friday, as the dollar and global shares rose, but fund buying persisted as investors expected a G20 summit would produce little in the way of a coordinated stimulus program. Financial leaders from G20 nations gathered in Shanghai against a backdrop of worsening economic conditions and a lack of wider consensus on how to fix the problems. Concerns that a slowing global economy could eventually push the United States into recession eased as data showed U.S. economic growth slowed less than expected in the fourth quarter. The above is hourly chart of Gold. It suggests that prices are making higher highs and lows. It is expected to rise again towards 29935 levels. On the flip side, immediate support is located at 29460 levels.
Call: Buy above 29635 levels with a stop loss 29460 levels for target of 29935. 
SILVER: The above is hourly chart of Silver. It suggests that prices hava taken support near trendchannel levels. Momentum indicator RSI is expected to reverse on the upside. Hence, price are expected to trade on upside with potential taget of 36815 levels. We expect silver prices to trade mixed as safe haven buying likely to support prices and profit booking after sharp up-move in prices likely to keep prices under pressure.
Call: Buy above 36220 levels with a stop loss 35870 levels for targets of 36815

26 February 2016


Crude Oil: The above is hourly chart of Crude Oil. It suggests that prices are trading in sideways zone. It is expected to move further upside till 2300-2360 levels. On the downside, immediate support is located at 2170 and 2115 levels. Crude oil futures jumped 3 percent on Thursday, reversing earlier loses after confirmation of a meeting of major producers and news of project delays and job cuts in the industry. Venezuela reaffirmed a mid-March meeting of oil producers that would include Saudi Arabia, Russia and Qatar, to stabilize prices that have slumped 70 percent in a 20-month rout. The four countries are involved in an effort to get oil producers in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and elsewhere to freeze production at January's highs. Many traders believe an output cut and not freeze is what the market needs to clear the global crude glut. Aside from the March meeting, traders said sentiment in oil was helped by project deferments in the U.S. shale industry and job cuts that will slow production. Oil services provider Halliburton said it will start a new round of global layoffs that will cut 5,000 jobs. Oil prices had fallen as much 3 percent earlier on Thursday after data indicating new record highs in U.S. crude inventories.
Outlook : We expect crude oil prices to trade positive on the back of news of stalled loadings for the United Kingdom's North Sea oil. Buy around 2220 levels with a stop loss placed below 2170 levels for targets of 2300 levels.

25 February 2016


Gold : Gold rose above $1,250 an ounce and neared a one-year high on Wednesday, acting as counter against risk alongside top-rated government bonds as oil's earlier weakness rippled into global equity markets. The market's rediscovered role as a shelter for risk-averse investors seemed to be gaining traction, traders and analysts said, even as the dollar gained ground against a basket of major currency rivals. The dollar fell later in the day. Stocks across the globe fell on concerns over economic growth but were off their session lows after crude oil futures turned higher following U.S. inventory data. New U.S. single-family home sales tumbled in January, while other data showed the services sector contracted in early February for the first time since October 2013. Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert Kaplan, who advocates a patient approach to policy tightening in the wake of global headwinds, said he does not expect the United States to enter recession this year. Assets in SPDR Gold Trust, the top gold-backed ETF, are at their highest since March 2015. The fund's inflows since the beginning of the year have already surpassed outflows for the whole of 2015, lending support to gold prices.
Outlook :We expect gold prices to trade positive on the back of safe haven buying.

24 February 2016

Crude Oil Inventory analysis for today

“SELL CRUDEOIL BELOW 2150 TGT 2110/2050 SL 2180”

Crude Oil : Oil prices tumbled 4 percent on Tuesday after Saudi Oil Minister Ali AlNaimi ruled out production cuts, and extended losses after settlement when a U.S. industry trade group API said domestic crude stockpiles swelled by more than twice what analysts had expected. Crude slid as Al-Naimi, at a conference in Houston, restated the kingdom's rationale for maintaining output was that demand would absorb excess crude that has crushed prices over the past 20 months. Big oil exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia have proposed to freeze output at January levels, which were near record highs, but only if other producers also do the same. More meetings on the potential freezes will be held in March, al-Naimi told the IHS CERA week conference in Houston. An estimated 1 million to 2 million barrels of oil are being produced daily in excess of demand, and analysts and traders remained skeptical that the freeze will erase the big global supply glut.

23 February 2016


NATURAL GAS: U.S. natural gas futures closed within a few cents of unchanged on Monday on forecasts for steady warmer-than-normal weather over the next two weeks, after earlier falling to fresh lows for the year. A liquefied natural gas tanker on Sunday docked at the Sabine Pass terminal in Louisiana, with only days to go before the United States ships its first export cargo of seaborne gas from the Lower 48 states. Hedge funds and other big speculators last week turned bearish on U.S. gas after warmer-than-usual forecasts. That was an about-face from the prior week when they took positive bets for the first time since January. U.S. and European weather models continued to point to higher-than normal temperatures over the next two weeks, which are expected to keep heating demand light during that time. The latest midday U.S. model ,however, pointed to less warm weather than the earlier morning model.
Outlook: We expect Natural gas prices to trade negative on the back of lower demand.

22 February 2016


GOLD: Above is MCX Gold daily chart. After giving pullback till 28425 in early of the last week, prices gained again above 29650 levels. However, RSI is suggesting weakening momentum. Hence, prices are expected to correct down till 28425-28025 levels before further move above 29650 levels.
SILVER: Above is MCX Silver daily chart. After making high above 38500, prices corrected till 36780 levels. However, it gained again upside till 37750 levels. Furthermore, prices are expected to give deep correction before further upside. On the downside, immediate support is located at 36780 and 36390 levels. Negative crossover on RSI suggests bearish trend in this week.
CRUDEOIL: Above is daily chart of MCX Crude oil. It suggests that prices are still trading under pressure. On the upside, it needs to cross 2365 and 2460 to turn its medium term trend. However, break of 2125 will take it through 1990 and 1950 levels. Hence, in this week prices are expected to give breakout on either side.

19 February 2016


Gold gave up some of its sharp overnight gains on Friday, but held above $1,200 an ounce as a drop in equities stoked fresh safe-haven demand for the metal. Asian shares slipped from near three-week highs on Friday, following a drop in U.S. equities overnight that snapped a three-day rally. Gold is also being bolstered by rising speculation that the Federal Reserve would not be able to hike U.S. interest rates due to concerns about the economy. MCX Gold Apr is currently trading at 29387. It is trading up by 78 points for the day. MCX Silver Mar is currently trading at 37469. It is trading down by 53 points.
Gold: The above is hourly chart of Gold. It suggests that prices are expected to correct down before further upmove. Hence, there is possibility of down move till 29085 levels. On the upside, immediate resistance is located at 29450 levels.

18 February 2016


Crude Oil : Oil prices rose 7 percent on Wednesday after Iran voiced support for a Russia-Saudi-led move to freeze production to deal with the market glut that had pressured crude prices to their lowest in a dozen years. Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh met counterparts from Venezuela, Iraq and Qatar in Tehran for over two hours on Wednesday, saying the proposed production "ceiling" should be the first step toward stabilizing the market. Zanganeh, quoted by Tehran's Shana news agency, did not say explicitly say that Iran will keep its own output at January's levels, in line with the proposal that major producers including Russia and Saudi Arabia restrict output. An Iranian official, speaking before Wednesday's meeting, said Iran would continue increasing its oil output to levels held before the 2012 trade sanctions imposed on the fourth largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Tehran has been the main obstacle to the first joint OPEC and non-OPEC deal in 15 years, after its pledge to recapture market share lost to sanctions. Even so, Zanganeh's endorsement of the production freeze plan helped spark a powerful rally.
Outlook: We expect crude oil prices to trade positive on the back of Russia-Saudiled move to freeze production.

17 February 2016


NICKEL HIT FIRST TGT 572 MADE HIGH OF 573.10!!!!!!!!!!!!
“SELL CRUDEOIL BELOW 2040 TGT 2010/1980 SL 2065”
Crude Oil: Oil prices traded lower on Tuesday, with Brent prices declining by around 4.6 percent to close at $30.6 per barrel after top producers Russia and Saudi Arabia dashed expectations of an outright supply cut by agreeing only to freeze output if other big exporters joined them. Benchmark Brent prices jumped briefly through $35 a barrel after Russia and Saudi Arabia agreed to keep output at January levels, in what could be the first joint OPEC and non-OPEC deal in 15 years. Qatari energy minister Mohammad bin Saleh al-Sada said the step would help to stabilize the oil market, which has experienced price declines not seen since the early 2000s because of a supply glut. On the MCX, oil prices declined by 2.2 percent to close at Rs.1992 per barrel. API inventory estimates Due to a U.S. holiday on Monday, the API will release its data a day later than normal on Wednesday, while the EIA's data is also delayed to Thursday. Outlook The OPEC meeting yesterday pinned all the hopes as they decide to maintain the production at around 31.6 mbpd (the January level) which is way higher than their actual targeted production of around 30 mbpd. Markets are filled with extra supplies and with Iran back on track after sanctions. On the MCX, oil prices are expected to trade lower today.

16 February 2016


“BUY COPPER ABOVE 313.70 TGT 315/317 SL 310”
“BUY NICKEL ABOVE 566 TGT 572/585 SL 552”

Base Metals Copper and nickel rose on Monday as hopes for more stimulus measures resurfaced after Chinese traders, returning from a weeklong holiday, digested worse-than-expected trade data. Also helping the metals, oil held on to recent gains, while China's central bank fixed the yuan at a much stronger rate. A stronger yuan reduces the risk that China will export deflation to the world. China's January exports fell for a seventh straight month while imports tumbled for a 15th straight month. Exports declined even though China allowed the yuan to weaken sharply, underlining the weakness in global growth. Outlook We expect base metal prices to trade positive on the back of hopes for more stimulus measures from China.

15 February 2016


Outlook: Crude oil prices last week was trading on a weaker note tracking negative cues for both the benchmarks. Last day of the week showed magnified gains as the rumors for OPEC cooperation with regards to production cut came in light by the UAE minister. Before this, a couple of times crude oil went up showing some massive intraday gains as the rumor for production cut was focused. The Venezuelan minister expects a technical meet between major oil players before their scheduled June meet, so that prices could be stabilized. Until and unless some exact steps are not disclosed by the giants, crude won’t sustain at its massive gains. Prices today are moving down, probably due to some technical corrections after humongous gains. The US market will remain close today on account of President’s Day and thus limited trading range may be witnessed. Today, China returned back from its week long holiday and jolted the market by its January month Y/Y and M/M imports data. The former one crude imports i.e Y/y in Jan went down by 4.60%, whereas M/m basis went down by 19.60%. Last week, Baker Hughes showed 8th continuous week downfall in active crude oil rigs in the United States region and anticipations are being made for further downfall in crude prices, which could be much less their sustainability cost. A range bound trend in crude prices is expected during the day.

12 February 2016


Base Metals: Copper rose on Thursday as the dollar slipped, but fears for global growth sparked by worries about a potential financial crisis and uncertainty about demand in China curbed gains. Comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve's chairwoman, Janet Yellen, that tighter credit markets, volatile financial markets and uncertainty over Chinese economic growth have raised risks for the U.S. economy also undermined confidence. A lower U.S. currency makes dollar-denominated commodities cheaper for non-U.S. firms, a relationship used by funds to generate buy and sell signals using numerical models. China is the world's largest consumer of copper, accounting for nearly 50 percent of global copper demand estimates at 22 million tonnes this year. Traders said the absence of China in metals markets this week due to the Lunar New Year holiday meant lower volumes and liquidity and higher volatility. Goldman Sachs has cut its 3- and 6-month nickel price forecasts to $8,500 a tonne from $10,000 and the 12-month forecast to $8,500 from $11,000.
OUTLOOK: The above hourly chart of Nickel suggests that prices are making lower highs and lows. It is expected to recover till 545.50 levels. On the downside, immediate support is located at 520 levels.
Call: Buy around 528.40 levels with a stop loss placed below 520 levels for targets of 545.50 levels.

11 February 2016


Gold: Gold prices stabilized below a 7-1/2-month high on Wednesday after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said that only "gradual" adjustments to monetary policy were likely and stressed that global headwinds could hurt U.S. growth. In her first testimony to Congress since the December rate hike, Yellen said that tightening financial conditions and uncertainty over China pose risks to the U.S. recovery, but chances are slim the Fed would need to reverse the rate tightening cycle. The gold price rally has hurt demand from physical buyers of the metal, traders said, while top consumer China was closed for the Lunar New Year holiday. Prices in India slipped to a record discount as dealers struggled to draw buyers by offering a record discount of up to $25 an ounce to the London benchmark price.
Outlook: We expect gold prices to trade positive on the back of Fed chair Yellen’s dovish statements
Silver: Silver was down 0.1 percent at $15.24 an ounce. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to reverse its plan to raise interest rates further this year,

10 February 2016



Crude Oil : Oil prices slid for a fourth straight session on Tuesday and teetered close to 12-1/2-year lows hit last month, after weak demand forecasts from the U.S. government and the western world's energy watchdog, while weak equities also pressured prices. Prices were under pressure throughout the session, but hit intraday lows after the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its oil demand growth forecast for the next two years. Investors do not normally watch the quarterly report so intensely, but the fact that it triggered fresh selling reflected deepening nerves across the crude market. It came just hours after Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) warned the world would remain awash with unwanted oil for most of 2016 as declines in U.S. output take time and OPEC is unlikely to cut a deal with other producers to reduce ballooning output. After the oil market settled, the American Petroleum Institute (API), an industry group, reported a build of 2.4 million barrels in U.S. crude stockpiles for last week. That was lower than the 3.6 million-barrel build predicted by analysts surveyed by Reuters. The EIA issues official stockpile numbers on Wednesday.
Outlook :We expect crude oil prices to trade negative on the back of global supply glut.

9 February 2016


“SELL GOLD BELOW 28300 TGT 28100/28000”

GOLD ROCKSSSSSSSSS HIT FINAL TGT 28100 MADE HIGH OF 28516 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Gold: The price of gold jumped 2 percent to a 7-1/2-month high on Monday, briefly nudging above the psychological level of $1,200 an ounce, as sliding stock markets and worries over global economic growth prompted investors to seek safety. Some recent weak economic data, particularly from the United States and China, has led financial markets to expect there will be fewer U.S. rate hikes this year than the four they had been pricing in a few weeks ago, perhaps only one. Lower rates cut the opportunity cost of holding gold, which earns no yield but costs to store and insure. Hedge funds and money managers boosted their bullish bet in COMEX gold to a three-month high in the week to Feb. 2, data showed on Friday. Gold prices are now trading between strong resistance between 27400 up to 27850 zones. Failure to sustain between these levels will trigger a sharp correction in the counter.

8 February 2016


“BUY GOLD ABOVE 27850 TGT 27950/28100”
Gold:  Gold rose to a three-month high in volatile trade on Friday, as a mixed U.S. jobs report prompted investors to reassess the outlook for U.S. interest rates this year, putting bullion on track for its strongest weekly performance in more than a year. U.S. employment gains slowed more than expected in January as the boost to hiring from unseasonably mild weather faded, but rising wages and an unemployment rate at an eight-year low suggested the labor market recovery remains firm. As a non-interest bearing asset, dollar-denominated gold becomes less attractive if U.S. interest rates rise.

5 February 2016


GOLD ROCKSSSSSSSSS HIT FINAL TGT 27500 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Crude Oil fell 2 percent in volatile trading on Thursday, as support from a weakening dollar was overshadowed by scepticism that cash-strapped OPEC member Venezuela's effort to lobby crude producers for joint output cuts would succeed. The dollar extended its drop for a second day, making greenback denominated commodities cheaper for holders of other currencies, with the dollar index hitting a roughly 15-week low on continued doubts that the Federal Reserve would be able to hike interest rates this year. Speculation about possible talks between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other oil producers to cut output increased volatility in the oil markets. Global benchmark Brent traded above $35 a barrel earlier in the session, adding to the previous session's 7 percent jump, after an Iranian official was quoted as saying Tehran supported a meeting, raising hopes that they could take action to support prices despite widespread skepticism in the market.

4 February 2016


“BUY GOLD 27260 TG 27350,27500 SL 26100”
Gold: Gold hit three-month highs on Wednesday, buoyed by a slower U.S. services sector and sinking dollar, prompting investors to seek shelter in assets perceived as safer as future Fed rate hikes appeared less likely. U.S. services sector activity slowed to a near two-year low in January, suggesting that economic growth weakened further at the start of the first quarter. The U.S. Federal Reserve's William Dudley told MNSI that financial conditions have tightened considerably since the Fed raised interest rates in December, and if that persists policymakers would have to take that into consideration when they meet in March. This prompted the market to scale back rate hike expectations.

3 February 2016



Silver: Silver prices need to sustain above 35100 levels for the counter to retest 35400 areas again. The broader prices set-up for the counter will stay positive until prices trade above 34000 levels. Immediate support is seen around 34500 below which prices will trade weak.The above is hourly chart of Silver. It suggests that prices are hovering near trend line support levels. If it breaks 34700 then it will fall further till 34225 levels. On the upside, immediate resistance is located at 35110 levels. Precious metals steadied after touching three-month highs on Tuesday, underpinned by global growth concerns and as another sharp drop in the oil price pushed investors toward safe-haven assets.

2 February 2016



“SELL CRUDEOIL BELOW 2110 TGT 2070,2020 SL 2170”
Crude oil prices yesterday slumped heavily seeing over production figures from the OPEC region along with slowing down of the world’s second biggest economy  As per closing basis, WTI International for March monthcontract suffered losses around 6%, registering at $31.62/bbl, whereas Brent crude oil for April month contract moved down by 5%, registering at $34.24/ bbl  MCX crude oil prices for February month contract suffered losses around Rs. 133, registering at Rs. 2153/ bbl .Crude oil prices showed massive gains last week probably due to the distillate consumption in the United States and on rumor of some production cuts by the OPEC members on technical discussion with the Russians. OPEC showed multi- decade high figures in January month after which the market became bearish and major contribution rise was from Iran, Indonesia and other smaller OPEC nations.

1 February 2016


“SELL SILVER BELOW 34840 TG 34750,34650 SL 35080”
Silver was up 0.4 percent at $14.28 an ounce.
Outlook : We expect silver prices to trade negative on the back of profit booking after sharp up-move in prices. Silver prices are also trading firm after China’s manufacturing data. The semi-official manufacturing PMI for January reached 49.4, missing the 49.6 level seen and remaining in contraction and the Caixin Manufacturing PMI index came in at 48.4, a bit above the expected 48.0. As well, Japan reports its manufacturing PMI, with a 52.4 level seen. The non-manufacturing PMI in China hit 53.5, down from 54.4 the previous month. For the day we expect a range bound session in silver.
Technical Outlook: Silver Mar
S2 S1 34200 34500
Close 34750
R1 R2  34900 35200