CRUDEOIL ANALYSIS FOR TODAY 11 APRIL 2016

"BUY ABOVE 2565 TGT 2614/2638 SL 2535"

 "SELL BELOW 2660 TGT 2618/2590 SL 2690"

Review:

• Crude oil prices last week showed massive gains seeing first weekly drawdown in crude stocks after seven continuous gains  
• As per Friday’s closing, WTI International showed intraday gains more than 6.50%, registering at $39.72/bbl, whereas Brent crude oil gains were around 6.40%, registering at $41.94/bbl  
• MCX crude oil showed gains around 6%, registering at Rs.2625/bbl  
• On weekly basis, gains in WTI International, Brent crude oil and MCX crude were around 8%, 8.50% & 6.60% respectively.

Outlook: Crude oil prices today is expected to extend its gains as last week Baker Hughes rig count showed third weekly removal in active crude oil rigs. With declining crude production levels, further fall in rig counts can support crude oil prices. Number of active crude oil rigs is running at their 2009 low levels. Current number of active crude rigs is just 22% of all time high levels of rig count. Apart from this, certain countries including some of the oil majors are expecting some better outcomes from the 17th April Doha meet. Russians seems to be the most optimistic one’s as they

expect new crude oil average to be around $50/bbl. Last week, the Latin American crude oil producers held meeting with regards to stabilize crude prices. Latin American countries production levels are declining and are expecting some positive outcome from the Doha meet. Iraq in March month pumped 4.55 MBPD crude oil against the Feb months 4.46 MBPD. Apart from this, Iran is seen grabbing its lost share as the same is exporting around 350,000 barrels per day to India. Many Indian refiners like, HMEL, Reliance and Essar booked their all time high consignment from the country. Money managers last week as per the CFTC data slashed their bullish exposure in U.S. crude by the most in three months.